Global disruption data explains why container ETAs move—not when your container will arrive.

The disruption was measurable at major chokepoints

UN Trade and Development reports that the Suez Canal handles about 10% of world maritime trade volume and 22% of world container trade, while the Panama Canal handles approximately 3% of global maritime trade volume. By June 2024, ship transits through both canals were down by more than half from their respective earlier peaks.

UNCTAD's October 2024 update reported a four-week average of 33 Suez transits per day in mid-October—57% below the previous peak and 55% below one year earlier. It also estimated that rerouting away from the Red Sea and Panama Canal increased global vessel demand by 3% and container-ship demand by 12% by mid-2024.

Port performance adds another clock

The World Bank's Container Port Performance Index focuses on the time container ships spend in port. Its 2020–2024 study combines administrative and statistical approaches and describes 2024 stress from Red Sea rerouting and Panama Canal constraints. North America and Europe largely stabilized near 2023 performance, while Middle East and North Africa results were more affected.

CPPI is a diagnostic port-call measure, not an ETA feed and not a forecast for a specific container. It does not include every inland, customs, availability, pickup, transshipment, or empty-return milestone that an importer must manage.

Measure ETA reliability as a sequence, not one date

Store each ETA observation with its source and observed time instead of overwriting the previous date. Then calculate change frequency, direction, magnitude, time-to-notify, and time-to-replan by lane, carrier, port pair, and shipment stage. Separate carrier-provided ETA from predicted discharge, terminal availability, customs release, pickup appointment, and final delivery.

• Preserve the previous and current ETA plus the time each signal was received.
• Record route or port changes without assigning an unsupported cause.
• Name the owner and next decision affected by a material ETA movement.
• Compare forecast error only after the matching actual milestone is confirmed.
• Report median and percentile error alongside the sample size; avoid one blended global average.

How Tyllus turns an ETA signal into visible work

Tyllus keeps container and MBL tracking context, ETA, current location, carrier information, timestamps, documents, and shipment follow-up in an operational view. Teams can connect a movement signal to the shipment and see which action or partner response still needs attention.

Tyllus does not control canals, ports, carriers, terminals, customs, or underlying provider data. It does not guarantee ETA accuracy or predict a shipment from UNCTAD or CPPI statistics. Its role is to make available signals and resulting work easier to trace and act on.